Ontario’s Q2 2025 Housing Report Card: Most GTA and GGH Municipalities Fall Behind on Targets

On September 22, 2025, the Q2 2025 GTA and GGH Housing Report Card, a comprehensive study conducted by the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative in partnership with the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON), was released, evaluating the performance of 34 municipalities across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). According to the report, most municipalities are failing to keep pace with past performance or meet provincial housing targets, raising concerns about supply, demand, and long-term growth potential.

The study assessed housing starts, sales, and industry employment during the first six months of 2025, comparing the data to the same period from 2021 to 2024. Municipalities were graded across five categories, resulting in a letter grade that reflected overall performance. The data itself came from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and Altus Group.

Declines Across the Region

Housing starts across all municipalities were down an average of 40% compared to the four-year historical average. The weakness is not confined to one housing type. Condominium apartment starts were down 54%, while ground-oriented homes such as detached houses, semis, and townhomes declined by 42%. Purpose-built rental housing was the lone bright spot, recording an eight% increase across the region, but that modest rise was not nearly enough to offset declines elsewhere.

Pre-construction sales, considered a leading indicator of future housing starts, point to even greater challenges ahead. Sales of pre-construction condominiums fell 89% compared to the 2021–2024 average, while sales of ground-oriented homes fell 70%. The pipeline of new projects is shrinking, suggesting that the decline in housing starts will deepen in the coming years.

The Situation in Toronto and Surrounding Municipalities

The City of Toronto illustrates the severity of the downturn. In the first half of 2025, housing starts were down 58%, while condo sales declined 91% and ground-oriented sales fell 90% compared to the 2021–2024 average. These reductions contributed to an estimated loss of 10,209 jobs in Toronto’s construction and housing sectors.

Other parts of the GTA performed even worse relative to provincial housing targets. Vaughan was 97% under target, Brampton 92% under target, and municipalities such as Ajax, Newmarket, and East Gwillimbury recorded virtually no progress toward their targets at all demonstrating that this is a trend affecting nearly every major market in the GGH.

Municipalities That Outperformed

Despite the overall weakness, a handful of municipalities delivered results that defied the broader trend. Brantford stood out as the top performer, receiving an A+ grade. Housing starts there increased by 272% compared to the four-year average, and rental apartment starts surged by an extraordinary 1,885%. Brantford also exceeded its provincial housing supply target by 126%, making it an outlier, although its pre-construction sales collapsed, with ground-oriented sales down 85% and condo sales down 100%.

Milton also earned high marks, receiving an A grade after housing starts increased by 113%. Richmond Hill was graded a B, with starts rising 77%, while Burlington also earned a B thanks to an 87% increase in new construction. Municipalities such as Pickering, St. Catharines, and New Tecumseth achieved C grades, indicating moderate resilience compared to their historical averages.

The Employment Impact

The construction slowdown is not only a housing supply issue but also a drag on the economy. The report estimates that the decline in housing starts across the 34 municipalities resulted in 24,195 fewer person-years of employment in the first six months of 2025 alone. Toronto accounted for more than 10,000 lost jobs, while Hamilton saw nearly 2,000 disappear.

In contrast, Brantford was again an exception, with its surge in construction activity creating an estimated 1,555 person-years of employment. These figures highlight the close relationship between construction activity and local economic health, underscoring the importance of monitoring employment as an investment indicator.

Calls to Action

RESCON president Richard Lyall and economist Mike Moffatt both stress that all levels of government must act quickly to reduce the tax burden on new housing and modernize approval processes, suggesting policy changes could significantly alter the trajectory of Ontario’s housing market in the coming years.