Diverging Dynamics: Edmonton’s Price Surge Versus Calgary’s Cooling Market

According to an Edge Realty Analytics report released in March, Alberta’s two major cities are continuing along separate paths. 

Seasonally-Adjusted Sales Dropping

Calgary’s seasonally adjusted sales declined approximately 15% month-over-month, which was the steepest drop since March 2022, while Edmonton’s sales fell about 10% month-over-month. Year-over-year, sales have also trended downward in both cities. 

New Listings Moderating

New listings have moderated in both markets. Calgary’s seasonally adjusted new listings decreased by 9% month-over-month, while Edmonton’s new listings fell by 11% month-over-month.

In a year-over-year view, Calgary’s overall sales edged up by 4.3% while Edmonton saw a near 2% decline. Calgary’s sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 60%, returning to a 20-year historical average. Edmonton’s ratio, still hovering near 80%, underscores strong underlying demand that could fuel further price increases.

Calgary’s active listings inventory has risen over 80% year-over-year, reaching what some consider more normal market levels. In contrast, Edmonton’s supply has contracted by 17% and remains at levels not seen in a decade. 

Divergence in House Price Performance

A key difference in between the two cities lies in house pricing. Seasonally adjusted figures indicate Calgary may have experienced its first slight decline in the House Price Index (HPI) since 2021. Meanwhile, Edmonton’s prices are rising notably, up 12% year-over-year compared to a modest 1% in Calgary.

Construction Activity: A Contrast in Pipeline Supply

A further notable difference is that Calgary’s construction activity declined, while Edmonton’s remained steady. In Calgary, the number of dwellings under construction dropped by 1.6% in January. This decline, primarily seen in condo and single-family projects, was partially offset by a 2.8% increase in rental construction. In contrast, Edmonton maintained a constant construction pace at 14,400 units.

Excluding purpose-built rental properties, as the Edge Realty Report notes do not add to future resale supply, provides a clearer picture of the market for owner-occupied homes. When focusing solely on these “homeowner” dwellings and comparing them to trends in resale activity, it becomes evident that Calgary has a stronger supply pipeline. This is expected to support higher resale inventory levels throughout the rest of the year. 

Meanwhile, Edmonton continues to show a disparity between resale demand and homeowner construction activity. The key takeaway from this is that Edmonton’s market still has considerable potential for price increases before it reaches a state of balance.