Calgary Real Estate Investment Forecast for Winter 2025–2026

As 2025 draws to a close, Calgary’s housing market is settling into a new rhythm after the recent years of rapid appreciation. The pace has eased, but underlying activity remains healthy, supported by steady demand and a still-resilient economy. Entering the winter season, the market appears more balanced, offering both buyers and investors selective opportunities in well-positioned neighbourhoods and property types, while sellers continue to achieve favourable results when pricing and presentation align.

Market Direction

As 2025 progresses, Calgary’s housing market is transitioning from the rapid appreciation seen earlier in the year to a more balanced and stable environment, according to Jesse Davies of Century 21, an experienced investment realtor who also owns his own positive cash flow revenue properties. 

CREB’s January 2025 forecast initially projected roughly a 3% city-wide benchmark increase for the year, reflecting optimism early in the cycle. However, by its Spring 2025 update released in June, the Board had adopted a more cautious tone, anticipating stable overall prices, with detached homes holding steady and modest declines of about 1% to 2% expected in higher-density segments such as row homes and apartments. This adjustment reflected rising inventory, shifting affordability, and a gradual normalization of demand after the record pace of 2023 to 2024.

As of September 2025, the City of Calgary’s total residential benchmark price stood at $572,800, about 4% lower than a year earlier, according to CREB. Across the broader Calgary Region, however, the benchmark reached $613,900, only 2.8% below last year’s level. This gap suggests that while pricing within the city core has adjusted modestly, several surrounding areas have continued to demonstrate greater stability and even pockets of resilience heading into the winter season. 

Notably, compared with the rest of Canada, Calgary’s market has shown relative resilience. In September 2025, the national MLS® Home Price Index was down about 3.4% year-over-year, compared to Calgary’s more modest drop. The Calgary region’s overall market remains solid, especially in key sectors and for certain property types, supported by steady demand and economic fundamentals. Detached and semi-detached homes have experienced relatively stable values, while higher-density properties like apartments and row houses have seen more significant price adjustments.

Looking ahead to winter 2025 to 2026, the market is expected to stabilize further. City-wide benchmark prices are projected to experience minor fluctuations, generally within the 1% to 3% range. Stronger submarkets may see slight appreciation, while areas with higher inventory levels could experience modest softening.

Davies stresses, “For investors, this environment calls for selectivity and disciplined consideration rather than more speculative strategies. Value-focused rental assets, mid-market single-family homes near transit, and small multifamily buildings in prime or emerging locations remain the strongest plays.” He also notes that a stronger focus on cash flow rather than appreciation is likely to be a more profitable strategy, as properties positioned in popular inner-city areas or stable suburban communities are most likely to sustain both income and long-term value even if broader averages stay flat.

Rental Conditions

Calgary’s rental market is also adjusting after a historic surge in demand. The City of Calgary housing research shows the total rental vacancy rate rose from 1.4% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, with City forecasts indicating it could approach 6% in 2025 as new supply continues to enter the market. That influx of new purpose‑built rentals and investor‑owned condos means tenants have more choice, while rent growth has slowed sharply.

Stable or slightly rising vacancy rates are likely over the winter months; landlords should be conservative with rent projections. However, demand remains healthy in well‑connected neighbourhoods close to transit, universities, hospitals, and job centres, according to Davies. Properties in these locations should continue to achieve stable rents and quick lease‑ups, and rents can reflect this.

Neighbourhoods with Stronger Prospects

Inner‑city and high‑amenity neighbourhoods continue to show higher resilience. Areas such as Beltline, Mission, Inglewood, Bridgeland, and Kensington benefit from walkability, established amenities, and limited land for new construction. While prices for condominiums here have moderated, well‑managed units with strong layouts in reputable buildings should maintain their value and, in some cases, post modest gains.

Detached and semi‑detached homes in established southwest suburbs like Evergreen, Shawnessy, and Mahogany’s more mature sections are also positioned to do relatively well. These communities appeal to families and long‑term residents, a demand base less sensitive to short‑term economic fluctuations. Investors looking for rental houses or duplexes in these areas may still achieve stable cash flow and gentle appreciation over time.

Satellite communities show a more mixed picture. In Cochrane, the benchmark price in August 2025 was $589,100, up slightly year‑over‑year, while Airdrie’s benchmark of $531,100 marked a 4% decline, for example. This divergence reflects differences in supply, commuting patterns, and local amenities. Investors considering the outer ring or nearby towns should pay close attention to fundamentals and be sure to gain the perspective of an investment realtor with local experience, rather than assume all satellite markets will perform alike.

Property Types to Watch

Davies notes that “Small multi‑unit residential properties, including fourplexes, low‑rise buildings, and well‑located townhome clusters, look set to outperform over the winter season.” These assets combine operational scale with flexibility and are less vulnerable to the oversupply challenges facing large new towers. In inner‑ring transition zones where new transit projects or mixed‑use redevelopment are planned, such properties could offer stable yields now and value‑add potential over the medium term.

Detached and semi‑detached homes in mature communities are also relatively well insulated. Demand for family‑friendly homes with access to transit and schools remains steady, and limited new construction in these pockets supports pricing. For investors focused on resale or long‑term hold strategies, these homes present one of the safer entry points.

On the other hand, high‑rise condos in peripheral or heavily built‑up districts face tougher conditions. Rising inventory, longer days on market, and buyer incentives suggest continued softening this winter. 

Supply Pipeline and Construction

New housing supply, including purpose-built rentals and condominium projects, is becoming a major influence on Calgary’s near-term outlook. Data from municipal housing research and CREB confirm that the uptick in housing starts and completions forecast for 2024 to 2025 will offer both renters and buyers more options.

The impact of this new supply will vary by location, however. Projects near transit lines, employment hubs, or major lifestyle amenities tend to lease or sell faster, as demand in these areas remains strong. Conversely, developments in peripheral zones without these drivers may experience slower absorption and higher vacancy levels.

This means location selectivity is more important than ever, according to Davies. Assets in neighbourhoods with limited room for further development, or in high-demand corridors with strong fundamentals, are likely to hold their value best. When assessing returns, investors should also factor in short-term competition from recently completed or soon-to-finish projects, as these can temporarily pressure rents and occupancy rates before the market stabilizes.

Strategic Positioning

Winter traditionally brings a slower pace to Calgary’s real estate market, with fewer transactions and more negotiating room for buyers. This seasonal lull can work to the advantage of investors who are patient and well capitalized. As inventories build in certain segments, motivated sellers are becoming more flexible, opening the door for acquisitions at valuations below the mid-2025 highs. For those seeking cash flow rather than short-term appreciation, this environment offers a chance to secure well-located assets at fair prices. Discipline, due diligence, and a strong strategy are necessary, though.

Success over the coming months will depend less on market timing and more on disciplined execution. Identifying properties with strong fundamentals, particularly in established or transit-oriented neighbourhoods, is likely to see steadier performance. A comprehensive analysis of rent assumptions and assessment of nearby new-build competition is critical.

Overall, Calgary is entering this winter as a more balanced market; with the right strategy, it can be rewarding. Detached and semi-detached homes in mature suburbs, small multifamily assets in inner-ring areas, and quality condos in amenity-rich districts remain best positioned for stable returns. For investors with a long-term horizon, patience, precision, and a focus on fundamentals will set the stage for potential gains when Calgary’s next cycle of growth begins to unfold.

Hyperlocal knowledge and expertise in Calgary’s dynamic market will provide a notable advantage, so working with an experienced, Calgary-focused investment realtor is recommended. Jesse Davies, a lifelong Calgarian and leader of the Jesse Davies team, brings over sixteen years of market experience spanning inner-city condos, multi-unit investments, and suburban homes. His background as a Certified Condo Specialist and former Director of Sales for a local infill developer gives him a rare perspective on both new and resale properties. Supported by a data-driven team that monitors inventory, absorption trends, and transaction timing across the city, he helps investors identify genuine value under changing market conditions.